The February to April 2019 climate outlook, issued 17 January 2019, indicates a drier than median three months is likely for most of WA, western parts of northern NT and SA, and much of eastern mainland Australia. The rest of the country shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than median season.
Warmer than median days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for February to April. For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than median are very high, greater than 80% for most of the country.
Tropical Pacific waters are neutral, but near El Niño levels. The atmospheric component of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has not responded to the warmer waters yet, meaning an El Niño event has not become established. The Bureau’s model suggests tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to reach El Niño levels through early autumn and then return to neutral.
This outlook is showing little signal from any of the typical Australian climate drivers, with most in a neutral phase. Therefore, local effects, such as the ocean temperatures around Australia, are likely to influence the outlook.